*New* Hungarian report on The Impact of European Demographic Trends on Regional and Urban Development
Demographic change is one of the most serious challenges Europe will face in the upcoming decades. The aim of this report is to give a broad overview of the complexity of the problems, paying special attention to their territorial dimension and to the question of what the urban level can do to influence demographic change in a favourable way, or to at least accommodate its consequences.
Introduction
Europe has a population of approximately 500 million people. The
fertility rate of the European Union is 1,6 (2009)
which is far below the replacement rate of 2,1. The fertility rate
differs significantly from country to country and the predictions
of future rates are very uncertain.
One phenomenon which is clearly becoming more important over time
though is ageing: the population of the EU will become
significantly older. This is wonderful as it reflects an
increasing quality of life in the EU, but it also puts pressure on
public spending, mainly in pensions and health care. A coordinated
migration policy could be a way to tackle the coming demographic
crisis of the European Union, though the EU specifically needs
entrants in the labour market with specific high skills and
education.
These phenomena act out differently across EU
countries: extremely low fertility and high emigration
affect mainly the new Member States. This continuous lack of
migration to the new Member States, coupled with very low fertility
rates will produce a very strong fiscal imbalance, making it
impossible to keep up current welfare systems. Moreover, the 5th
Cohesion Report concluded that regional disparities within the new
member States are growing: the economic and demographic decline in
these regions may aggravate even more in the coming decades.
Summary
Demographic change will not be of similar intensity in Europe, as is depicted in the figure above. Thus, cities need to become aware of their specific situation and be aware that the real challenges for the future are the economic and social causes and consequences of demographic change, not demographic change itself. According to the above diagram, 3 main types of cities and related policy elements exist:
- Cities that experience a strong population increase caused mainly by their large economic power. These cities are mostly bigger cities in Western Europe. In order to avoid the spatial and social tensions as a result of growth and increasing heterogeneity, dynamically growing cities should concentrate on retaining the territorial and social cohesion of the urban area.
- Cities with a strong economic background and a gradually shrinking or sometimes slightly increasing ‐ or stable population. The main task of cities with a more or less stable demographic and strong economic background is to create flexible urban strategies, in such a way that developments can serve different purposes (for instance, housing for youth as well as elderly).
- Urban areas of complex shrinkage experience both demographic and economic decline. These urban areas are mostly located in the Central and Eastern part of the EU, but some peripheral areas of Western Europe are also affected. The strategy to mitigate complex shrinkage should concentrate on the redefinition of the economic basis, and on adapting to the partial collapse of the overdeveloped infrastructure, housing and public services.
The EU also has a certain authority and autonomy to influence
demographic processes, and it described five main fields for
intervention:
- Better support for families;
- Promotion of employment;
- Raising productivity and economic performance;
- Better support for immigration and the integration of migrants;
- Sustainable public finances.
Thus, the EU can through indirect tools encourage (or press)
national governments to develop policies with a direct relevance to
demographic processes. Other policy fields, such as Cohesion Policy
and ESF resources, can also influence the demographic future of
Europe. The Commission is devoted to stress the importance of
demographic challenges in the light of the EU 2020 Strategy,
although several important apects, among which growing regional
differences, decreasing fertility rates and the multiethnic
composition of Europe are not yet taken into account.
Publication date
April 2011
Researchers
Éva Gerőházi, József Hegedüs, hanna Szemző, Iván Tosics (MRI),
Kyra Tomay, Lászlo Gere (VÁTI)
Organisation
- Dr. Péter Szaló, State Secretary for Spatial Planning and Construction, Ministry of Interior
- Dr. Andrea Iván, State Secretary for Spatial Planning and Construction, Ministry of Interior, Hungary
- Iván Tosics, PhD, Metropolitan Research Institute Ltd. Budapest
Main partner institute: VÁTI Hungarian Non-profit Ltd. for Regional Development and Town Planning
Contributing country
Hungary
Covering City
All over Europe
EU involvement
This synthesis report was issued within the framework of the Hungarian Presidency of the Council if the European Union.
Contact person
Dr. Andrea Iván
Function: Senior Expert Adviser
Phone: +36-1-441 1684
Email: andrea.ivan@bm.gov.hu
Iván Tosics,
PhD
Function: Managing Director
Phone: +3612179041
Email: tosics@mri.hu