How to accommodate the impacts of population decline?
Population ageing affects most regions in the world, and in Europe this development is picking up speed. Today, the most important force causing population change in Europe is international migration, while the traditional importance of natural population growth has diminished. The report presents the outcomes of the ESPON 2013 project ‘Demographic and Migratory Flows affecting European Regions and cities (DEMIFER)’. Key objectives of this project were to assess the variable economic and social effects of demographic trends and the influence of migration flows on European regions and cities.
Different types of regions will be affected in different ways
A priority of the ESPON 2013 Programme is to analyse demographic
trends in Europe, to distinguish demographic trends and to link
these to economic, social and environmental development issues in
European regions and cities. Within the project DEMIFER:
Demographic and migratory flows affecting European regions and
cities, the objective is to assess the effects of demographic
trends and migratory flows on European regions and cities and to
examine the implications for regional competitiveness and cohesion.
Even though population ageing will affect regions all across
Europe, different types of regions will be affected in different
ways. Because of these differences, DEMIFER has developed a
typology of regions:
- The Euro Standard type, showing a stagnating natural population balance and a positive net migration rate;
- The Family Potentials, with strong population development and a good balance between younger and older age groups;
- The Young Potentials, with a young age structure and positive population development due to both national population balance and positive net migration;
- The Challenge of Labour Force region, characterised by a high share of young people not yet in the labour force;
- The Challenge of Decline type, with low fertility rates and a negative migration rate;
- The Challenge of Ageing type, with a high dependency ratio.
In order to influence the respective demographic futures of these
regions, DEMIFER goes on to make several policy recommendations.
Policies addressing demographic challenges need to consider other policy sectors as well
In order to contextualise these recommendations, the analysis proposes four different futures towards which political choices can be made. Based upon the axes Economy-Environment and Distribution-Fairness, four scenarios have been developed:
- Growing Social Europe;
- Expanding Market Europe;
- Limited Social Europe;
- Challenged Market Europe.
Within each of these futures, policymakers need to make choices
will influence for instance fertility choices, interregional and
international migration and labour force participation. These
choices will determine the degree to which cities and regions can
retain their current population levels.
Publication date
September 2010
Document type
Research Document
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