30-05-2007

The total population of the current 27 Member States of the EU could fall by some two percent between now and 2050. This is what the European Commission's statistical office, Eurostat, considers as a reasonable projection. But over such a long period of time the margin of error is much greater than those two percent by which our total population might decline over more than four decades.

During a period of several decades, migration flows can be expected to amount to much more than two percent of the population and we do not know how fertility and mortality rates are going to evolve. So there is considerable uncertainty about the aggregate trends, but there is even greater uncertainty at the level of a region or a city. This is because regional mobility will allow some regions and cities to have growing populations even in a context of overall population decline.

For a long time, cities have been able to attract a growing share of the population, at the expense of rural areas. It is safe to assume that cities will remain the main poles for economic growth and job creation in the future, and they offer the amenities people need: a broad range of services including education, health and culture. Young people move to cities in order to study and once finished they are most likely to find a job in the city and it often offers the lifestyle they are looking for. However, the largest cities might, in the future, find limits to their growth as they become too expensive and too congested to offer people a decent quality of life.

Another issue is whether retired people – a fast growing group – will chose to live in cities or opt for a quieter rural life instead. At the same time, cities should not consider the elderly as less desirable residents just because they are no longer in employment. A city of retirees can be as vibrant as any other city, provided it creates the right conditions for 'active ageing'. 

Families need a wide range of services and only cities can offer these in close proximity. These services enable parents to reconcile professional, private and family life. Many cities provide access to high quality family services such as childcare, pre-school education and after school care. They can offer a wide range of educational facilities for children as well as employment opportunities for both parents, all this made accessible by good urban transport. But we should also acknowledge that many cities still have a long way to go to become genuinely family friendly. Supporting cities and local authorities in their endeavour to become more family friendly is one of the main goals of the European Alliance for Families which was announced by the European Council in March this year. In the Communication on "Promoting solidarity between the generations"(COM/2007/244) the Commission explains how public policies in support of family life need to evolve and take into account the need to promote employment and equal opportunities. The Communication also explains how this European Alliance for Families can be established as a Europe-wide platform for the exchange of experience and dissemination of good practice.

At European level, we are only beginning to look at "family friendliness" and we are considering setting up, as part of the European Alliance for Families, an ‘observatory’ or monitoring centre for good practice in this regard. Once this is in place, I may be able to answer your question. But why don’t you organise a competition or award scheme to find Europe’s most family friendly cities? 

I think the biggest mistake would be to fail to recognise and use the potential of the ageing baby boomers. We have to make sure that these large cohorts who are healthier and better educated than any cohorts before them will stay on the labour market and remain active members of society for as long as possible. If we don’t succeed in boosting the labour force participation of older workers – and this is one of the key goals of the Lisbon strategy – then we run a huge risk of unsustainable increases in public expenditure for pensions, health and long term care. Fortunately the trend towards ever earlier retirement has already been reversed and thanks to rising employment rates the number of jobs in the EU is expected to continue to grow until 2017. But many Member States can still do a lot better. We have a ten year window of opportunity to grow richer before growing older. The wealth we thereby create can be used to invest in families and children, making sure that people can realise their desire to raise a family and that all children can develop their full potential. This is the essence of the new solidarity between generations we have to build. 

The EU needs migrants, both skilled and unskilled, to overcome existing and future labour market bottlenecks. But there is a risk of increasing marginalisation of migrants and their descendants. What I find particularly worrying is that many second or third generation children and youths from a migration background continue to be disadvantaged. Ensuring that these children and youths are doing well in the education system and can develop their full potential will be crucial for social cohesion, particularly in cities, and for future economic growth. When I said that we need to invest more in families and children I mean in particular children from a disadvantaged background, and this includes many if not the majority of children from ethnic minorities and with a migration background. I believe that resources from education budgets need to be targeted at such disadvantaged groups and here cities depend of course on the budgetary decisions taken at the national or regional level. But cities themselves also must ensure, through their urban planning prerogatives that barriers between the various communities are broken down and that integration and mutual understanding are promoted.