EUKN - European Urban Knowledge Network - The demographic future of Europe

The demographic future of Europe – from challenge to opportunity

Introduction

The European Commission is concerned about the demographic development of Europe in the 2010-2050 period. The main demographic trends, i.e. an ageing population, and a possible population decline, will have huge social impacts. These implications will be felt by the EU as a whole, by member states, by regions and cities and on the individual level.

Description

Demographic ageing, i.e. the increase in the proportion of older people, is above all the result of significant economic, social and medical progress. It is also one of the main challenges that the European Union will have to face in the years to come.

Four interactive trends are now shaping the European Union’s future demographics:

The current fertility rate - the average number of children per woman - is low, at 1.5 children for EU-25. The replacement rate, required to stabilise the population size in the absence of immigration, is 2.1.
The gradual progress of the baby-boomers towards retirement age will lead to a substantial increase in the proportion of old people, who will need to be supported financially by a reduced working age population. This phenomenon will disappear, but not for several decades.
After increasing by eight years since 1960, life expectancy at birth could continue to rise by at least a further five years by 2050. This will lead to a spectacular increase in the number of people surviving to the ages of 80 and 90. The proportion of people in poor health in this age bracket could fall.
At the same time immigration partially counters the above mentioned demographic trends. Currently, the EU receives 1.8 million immigrants annually. In conservative projections, another 40 million people will emigrate to the EU between now and 2050.

As a result of these trends, the total population of the EU-25 will fall slightly, and will become much older, resulting in the following:

In 2050, the EU will change from having four to only two persons of working age for each citizen aged 65 or above.
The slight decline in population will not be spread out evenly over the European territory. Some areas will loose a large proportion of their population. Certain regions and cities will soon be, or are already, facing difficulties in supplying essential goods and services, such as health care, urban planning, transport and tourism services.

The report offers five broad ‘solutions’ to the problem of demographic change:

Promoting demographic renewal in Europe - raising the fertility rate of women
Promoting employment in Europe – increasing the rate of participation, in particular of people over 55
A more productive and dynamic Europe – improving the productivity of working Europeans
Receiving and integrating migrants in Europe - the EC seeks to harmonise member states’ immigration laws
Sustainable public finances in Europe – again, by increasing the rate of participation

After reading the report, it becomes apparent that regional and local governments should and will be involved in implementing the policies aimed at combating the negative effects of the demographic changes:

Most urban areas will be confronted with massive immigration. It is a challenge to integrate the immigrants into the formal economy and the larger society. This will be for a big part on the shoulders on local governments.
Increasing the rate of participation is largely a task for local communities. European and national employment strategies cannot succeed without action, commitment and engagement on the part of regional and local actors.

Contact info

European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities
Mr Ralf Jacob (Head of Unit Social and Demographic Analysis), tel. +32 2 299 0483

Publication date

12/10/2006

Article info
Organisation: European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities

Links

For more information on demographic change in Europe, please visit the DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities website

Download the report (PDF, Eng, 105 KB)

Document type

policy

Themes

Urban Policy > Economy knowledge & employment > Urban economy

Keywords

Employment