The Helsinki Region has a younger age structure than the rest of Finland, but is also facing a long period of strong decline in the labour force. This is going to cause a shortage of, above all, vocationally trained young people.

The actual research is published in Finnish. The attached web publication is also in Finnish. The English Summary describes the two calculation projections and the basic results in short.

The trend in working life today clearly seems to be that in all professions, higher qualifications are required whilst the loss of labour force continuously grows and those younger age cohorts that are taking over are clearly smaller than their predecessor.

The research was the third time that Helsinki and its neighbouring municipalities together with other actors in the region forecast the need for labour and education in the region. The first time was a project in 1985 for the development of vocational training in the Helsinki Region. The second survey, also enjoying financial support from the EST, was completed in 2000.

The research is based on statistics and the starting year was 2000. The forecast method is a labour force method and it is divided into two sections. The first focuses on the needs of working life, anticipating  demand for new labour. This covers the amount of labour required by economic life and the types of education it will need the labour force to have in the anticipating period.

The second section of the method concerns the supply of labour. The majority of the supply of new labour comes from new young age groups. In addition, the unemployed labour force will bring its own addition to the supply. Occupational transitions in working life will have an influence on the occupational structure. Within the regional aspect it is also important to notice the influence of working-age population's movements in and out of region.

In the basic calculation, the demand for labour grows moderately. The number of jobs will grow up until the year 2010, and then start to decline slightly. The forecast gives the region a total of 675,300 jobs in 2015. Job growth, however, is limited by the supply of labour.

During the forecast period, the labour force loss will amount to 237,000 people. Thus, by 2015, the aggregate need for labour will be 264,000 in the basic calculation. The number of vacant jobs in the Helsinki Region between 2001 and 2005 is 17,600 in the basic calculation. The labour force loss accounts for the majority of the need for new labour.

The largest number of vacancies are expected in the service sector. In leading and expert jobs, and in the care sector and in industrial jobs, too, many new vacancies will occur. Structural changes in the demand for labour are more important than the number of jobs.

City of Helsinki Urban Facts, Research Unit
Mr. Seppo Montén, tel. +358 9 7747 7206

01/04/2005

Seppo Montén

research

Urban Policy > Economy knowledge & employment > Urban economy

Employment