EUKN - European Urban Knowledge Network - Vulnerability and resilience in Leeds, Brighton & Bristol

Vulnerability and resilience in Leeds, Brighton & Bristol

Introduction

Following a decade and a half of constant expansion, the UK is now facing a deep and potentially prolonged recession. The UK’s cities, which were the drivers of economic growth, now face a period of economic contraction and rising unemployment. This report analyses the impact the recession will have on three UK city sectors – financial and related business services in Leeds, Brighton’s retail and leisure industry and Bristol’s manufacturing sector- and examines the potential for job losses and the prospects for recovery.

Description

While many cities consider themselves well-placed to meet the challenges of this recession, the reality is that this will not always be the case. The Greater South East (GSE) will see a sharp drop in output, but unemployment will be more widespread, rising across the country. The prosperous GSE also looks set to bounce back more quickly.

The impact of this recession will be different to previous recessions. While the 1990s recession was driven by a decline in demand, we are currently experiencing an acute reduction in credit, which has in turn caused demand to fall. It is clear that the impact is not expected to mirror the previous experience and will affect different places and different types of businesses in different ways.

Background information

The Centre for Cities is a non-partisan research and policy institute, helping cities improve their economic performance. They work with cities, employers and central government to develop practical policy solutions which help urban economies grow. The image reads: The Centre for Cities is a non-partisan research and policy institute, helping cities improve their economic performance. We work with cities, employers and central government to develop practical policy solutions which help urban economies grow.

The image reads: The Centre for Cities is a non-partisan research and policy institute, helping cities improve their economic performance. We work with cities, employers and central government to develop practical policy solutions which help urban economies grow.

Conclusions

The key sectors studied in all three of our case studies have seen a reduction in job vacancies above the national average. This cap on recruitment will cause employment levels to fall and unemployment to rise, even in the absence of widespread redundancy announcements.

This report highlights that three successful cities - Leeds, Brighton and Bristol – are forecast to experience combined losses, by 2011, of over 21,000 jobs and up to 56,000 jobs in a worst case scenario. The case studies also show that, because of their sectoral structure, these cities will experience very different recessions.

Publication date

09/01/2009

Researcher

Kieran Larkin and Malcolm Cooper

Links

Click here for more information on Kieran Larkin Click here for more information on Malcolm Cooper Click here for the research document

Document type

research

Themes

Urban Policy > Economy knowledge & employment

Keywords

Urban economy