Due to the demographical changes, the housing markets are likely to become more inconsistent and to be characterised by a concurrence of supply surpluses, increasing housing vacancies in stagnating regions and bottlenecks in dynamic regions. Against this background, they are expected to have large impacts on important fields of housing policy. The study aims at presenting the consequences of the long-term demographical development on the housing policy and at making proposals for its reorientation. A description of the different constellations of housing markets makes clear that, due to different regional conditions, the effects of existing housing policy instruments will change in the future.

The present study aims at analysing probable changes of housing markets and changed political requirements resulting from this. The present policy is analysed and some of its mostly undesired but critical side effects are pointed out. The study deals with the different forecasts of household development and demand trends. The analyses also include two scenarios each taking different political assumptions as a basis. The „urbanity“ scenario describes the implications on the steering and compensation policy in case of an economical use of areas aiming to keep the city as compact as possible. The „market“ scenario investigates the possibilities of extending market steering in order to face the common function deficits of markets.

Clear changes of housing policies and instruments can be foreseen. They concern the Federation and the Länder in the same way as local authorities and investors. Urban structural and environmental objectives will among other things clearly gain in weight and it will be necessary to draw conclusions from the regionalisation and differentiation of housing markets. For this purpose, a policy mix will be discussed including a changed division of roles between the Federation and the Länder and changed subsidy forms. It shows that identical housing policy instruments at the Federal level have become obsolete due to different regional and local conditions.

empirica - Qualitative Marktforschung, Struktur- und Stadtforschung GmbH
bonn@empirica-institut.de
http://www.empirica-institut.de
Mr Ulrich Pfeiffer, tel. +49 (0228) 914890

01/01/2004

Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning (Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung)

research

Urban Policy > Housing > Housing policy

Housing need