The study presents a summary of the organization, data sources, methodology and use of regional and local population projections. It presents also an initial analysis of the uncertainty problems and development needs of regional and local projections. Finally, the study includes conclusions and recommendations concerning the use and methods of regional and local population projections.

Information about future population development in the form of forecasts, projections or scenarios are needed at regional and local level especially for land use and infrastructure planning and the planning of regional and local public services, especially health, social and education.

There are significant differences with respect to population structure between regions of the country, between municipalities within regions and even between districts within municipalities. The special role of migration in regional and local population developments is a major challenge for population projections.

The review of the use of regional, city and district level population projections is based on interviews and questionnaire study to representatives of the Regional Council of Uusimaa and the City of Helsinki. In addition, information from other countries and cities/regions is used.

This research is part of a project titled "The use of demographic trends and long-term population projections in public policy planning at EU, national, regional and local level".

In the city of Helsinki, planning of service networks is the most important use of the district level population projections. The results of projection calculations are often questioned or criticized by service users. Reliable and well reasoned population projections are needed.

There are problems in the quality and availability of population statistics particularly in new EU countries. Especially the incomplete registration of out-migration is a major problem. The quality of population data sources should be improved as a precondition for the development of population forecasting.

Better tools for analysing the sources of uncertainty in projections are needed. The use of stochastic approach should be studied also in the case of regional and local projections. Additional research concerning the trends and characteristics of migration at regional and local level is also needed.

Urban Research TA Ltd
Mr. Seppo Laakso, tel. +358 9 561 2493

/10/2005

Seppo Laakso

research

Urban Policy

Social inclusion & integration, Housing, Transport and infrastructure, Urban environment