Historically, the demand for transport has been examined by placing the transport sector at the centre of the analysis, and seeking variables that explain the observed changes to transport patterns. However, transport demand and growth are normally created by decisions and developments outside the transport sector; transport is more often a means to an end, such as shopping, working and holiday trips. Decisions made in these sectors outside of transport influence the carbon footprint of the transport sector as they are often taken without considering the consequences on transport demand and greenhouse gas emissions. To tackle the challenge of increasing CO2 from transport, a detailed analysis of sectors of economic activities outside the transport sector is therefore needed. In order to better understand these external drivers, this study formulated a conceptual framework to identify main sectors and factors which impact on demand. It shall be seen as an initial attempt to understand key sectors and factors which impact transport demand, and to identify measures that can be taken to manage demand. It is meant to facilitate the inclusion of demand management into the policy discussions on the development towards a sustainable transport system.

Following a literature review of approximately 90 publications, the factors that were identified included socio-demographic changes, economic growth and globalisation, physical changes to urban form/land use, organisational changes at workplaces and schools, socio-cultural changes and technological developments. The key sectors consisted of retail, leisure/tourism, business, education, and industry. Both passenger and freight transport demand were examined, though it is understood that those fields of transport have different drivers of transport demand.

The study used a case-study based approach, in order to focus efforts on a few issues of particular importance, and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework.

From a matrix of factors and sectors previously described, nine topics were identified as case study candidates, ranging from the effects of e-commerce on shopping journeys, to the demands of an ageing population on leisure trips.

A number of aspects such as carbon reduction potential, EU policy influence, cost effectiveness and political/social acceptability were considered to select the three following case studies:

One obvious topic linked to transport demand is the role of physical planning and land use. This was however not addressed in depth in specific study due to the extensive coverage of this topic in the existing literature and due to the limited size of this project.

Each case study examined the mechanisms by which the sector in question affects transport, recent trends, interactions with other sectors, key influencing factors and possible actions by actor. The examination of the three detailed case studies revealed the complex interactions between the various factors and external sectors, and the mechanisms by which transport demand is affected. It showed that there is a need for context specific instruments to be applied to tackle the effects of transport demand Executive summary 9 Beyond transport policy — exploring and managing the external drivers of transport demand rather than a long list of generic actions. However, a few fundamental findings were identified as being important to manage transport demand.

First, actors outside the transport sector need to understand and account for the consequences of their actions on transport demand. A review of the effectiveness of Impact Assessment Tools taking transport effects into account may give further indications for effective policy instruments. The study also highlighted a knowledge gap and a need for more research on the transport consequences of non transport decisions. It has been observed that European experience of managing transport demand by non transport sectors is often undocumented, insufficiently highlighted or stays within the national boundaries of the EU Member States.

For the specific case studies some observations were made as follows.

Concerning Food production and consumption transport was highlighted as an important element of the logistical chain from 'farm to fork', with the potential to influence emissions throughout the whole process of producing and consuming food. A wide range of factors, including purchasing power, perception of fashionable/healthy food, availability of foodstuff domestically, product expiration date, marketing, convenience and technological developments were identified as influencing transport demand.Some actions were identified such as the further promotion of food labelling to show its impact on greenhouse gas emissions, possibilities for manufacturers to use inputs from nearer subcontractors, encouraging consumers to take fewer shopping trips or to combine trips or journeys, using local shops, and to modify spatial planning policies to help make food shopping more convenient and associated journeys shorter.

Concerning Short-haul air travel for business and leisure air passenger demand and emission growth were found to be faster than for other transport modes. Both the business and leisure sectors are increasing their dependence on air travel. Businesses increasingly locate in close proximity to airports and airports have developed from simply being transport hubs to incorporate retail, conference/meeting and accommodation facilities. Key factors that influence air travel demand include disposable income, ticket prices, planning policies that favour regional airport development, availability of alternative modes and image/status of flying. Accessibility to the wider European and global market was described as a large factor for the reliance of businesses on aviation. The development of alternative technologies such as remote conferencing and online meetings that could serve similar functions, and thereby reduce the need to travel physically have so far shown to often be compliments to travel rather than substitutes. Actions can be taken at several levels to manage the increasing demand for air transport, such as the use of EU-ETS and other pricing mechanisms, promotion of alternative modes such as rail, further development and use of alternative technologies such as teleconferencing and increased efficiency of airplanes and operations.

Concerning Education based travel effects on transport demand, trends across Europe indicate an increase in journeys to school by car caused for instance by concerns over children's safety and security, adults' travel behaviours and household income. Actions to meet this trend include a denser network of primary schools and more aggregated schools with sustainable transport infrastructure for walking and cycling in such a way that children would be safer on the road. School travel plans, 'walking buses' and car pooling schemes may also be implemented.

The detailed case studies have highlighted the importance of systematically understanding the complex ways in which external factors and sectors affect transport demand. A few common issues were identified, which are relevant in meeting the challenge of managing transport demand and creating a more sustainable transport sector:

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//2008

research

Urban Policy

Transport and infrastructure