PRELUDE (PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe) uses an innovative mix of illustration, text and state-of-the-art models to simulate five contrasting future environmental scenarios for a Europe affected by changing patterns of land use, climate change, agriculture and demographics.

“PRELUDE illustrates that the key trends facing Europe can change significantly. We need better integrated, long-term assessments to effectively support strategic decision-making. Our current governance structures are not well suited to this kind of long-term vision,” Professor Jacqueline McGlade, Executive Director of the EEA, explained.

Europe’s society is changing rapidly, propelled by a globalising economy, new communication technologies and increased mobility. Urbanisation, infrastructure and intensifying agriculture have left their mark on the European landscape and now climate change may also become a key factor.

PRELUDE explores different perspectives on possible future land use changes in Europe and the impact these may have on the environment.

A description of current land use in Europe provided a starting point for looking at plausible future developments. Five distinct land use scenarios have been developed in what is called the Story-and-Simulation approach.

To complement the European analysis, possible regional implications of the scenarios are highlighted by “zooming in” on three regions: Estonia, the Netherlands and northern Italy.

PRELUDE explores what European landscapes may look like 30 years from now and beyond. Instead of making predictions, it tackles the vast uncertainties of the distant future by analysing a range of plausible developments. As a result five contrasting futures are depicted in a set of coherent scenarios.

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29/11/2006

European Environment Agency

research

Urban Policy > Urban environment

Land use