Is the chance great that riots similar to the ones that occurred in France will break out in The Hague? Are there signs pointing in this direction? These were the questions that product group Research & Integrated Issues of The Hague’s Education, Culture & Welfare Department wanted to answer. The findings are described in the report entitled “Hete herfst...ook in het Haagse?” (A hot autumn – coming to The Hague, too?)

The first part of the research describes factors that were mentioned in articles and commentaries on the events in France as being “causes”, background factors and seedbeds for these events.

The main question posed in the second part of the literature review is: can this also happen in The Hague?

In response to the riots in France, the alderman in The Hague responsible for Education, Social Affairs, Employment and Integration commissioned a study into the situation in The Hague.

The study was conducted on the basis of a literature review. Various sources from the Netherlands and certain other European countries were consulted.

The factors accounting for the occurrence of riots in France are extremely diverse and complex. This is why it is not easy to issue a pronouncement with any degree of confidence about the chances that similar riots could also break out in The Hague.

Arguments for the possibility that riots actually could occur here are based predominantly on mob psychology and game theory (applying laws of probability), as well as on street culture, the role of the media, and the disruptive behaviour of certain young people. Such conclusions can also be drawn as based on opinions about how the government (including the police) would have to conduct themselves, particularly with regard to the reactions that this behaviour would evoke among citizens. The most important aspects here are behaviour and expectations with respect to behaviour.

Most sources are noncommittal: it could happen and never say never. The sources often refer to circumstances here that are similar to those in France such as high unemployment rates and housing problems. The scale at which these problems occur in the Netherlands, however, makes it unlikely that riots would soon occur here as well. The conclusion: no reason for panic, but vigilance would be a good idea.

The research findings refer to the need for continuing to monitor recognised and potential background factors, but also to the desirability, where possible, to be alert to factors related to street culture, the role of the media, disruptive behaviour, attention to and interaction between government and the population, mob psychology and applying the laws of probability.

City of The Hague - Education, Culture and Welfare Department
Willem Vroege, tel. +31 70 3535367

01/02/2006

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Willem Vroege

research

Urban Policy > Security & crime prevention > Anti-crime policy

Riots