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Systemic risk and home ownership in the UK

Introduction
Risk is an inherent part of owner-occupation. Risk arises from the nature of housing as an asset whose value can fluctuate over time, the need for most households to maintain regular mortgage payments over a long period, and the uncertainty that arises from most payments fluctuating with interest rates. Since many of these risks are likely to be activated by trends in the wider economy, such as rising unemployment leading to income loss, or rising interest rates, they can affect many or even all owners with mortgages at the same time. Moreover, behaviour can become reinforcing, either through the normal operation of expectations in a (part) asset market, or because the collective distress of borrowers can force house prices – hence values – down for everyone. Thus risk at the individual level can translate into risk at the systemic level.
Description
Systemic risk has been interpreted intuitively to mean risk at the level of the housing system. Systemic risk can be distinguished from individual risk where the consequences are confined to individuals, possibly many thousands of individuals and is therefore of policy concern, but the consequences are largely confined to these individuals. Systemic risk indicates a risk that has consequences throughout the entire housing system, where the consequences of risk for individuals has knock on effects for others spreading throughout the entire system. These two categories of risk are not discrete, but the implication of systemic risk is that its consequences may spread throughout the housing market and even beyond it to affect financial institutions and government.
Background information
The Joseph Rowntree Foundation ‘Home-Ownership 2010 and Beyond’ inquiry aims to ‘adopt a long-term perspective on home ownership with specific reference to the most likely risks at both at the systemic and individual level. Two papers were commissioned to examine developments that have the potential to increase the risk of owner occupation at the systemic level and/ or the individual level.’3 This is the first of these papers.
EU involvement
EU legislation and/or funding
Conclusions
The document addresses systemic risk at the level of the housing market as a whole. The housing system has distinctive regional and sub-market patterns. Some areas of the country are experiencing more pressurised housing markets than others, and risks vary accordingly. Similarly, it is now evident that certain sub-markets are behaving differently even within regional housing markets. Such fragmentation makes the assessment of risk and any policy responses to it still more complex.
Contact info
University of York
Mark Stephens, tel. +44 1904 321 472
Publication date
29/06/2005
Project finished
//
Researcher
Mark Stephens
Links
Systemic risk and home ownership in the UKUniversity of York

Systemic risk and home ownership in the UK (PDF, Eng, 561 KB)

Document type
research
Themes
Urban Policy > Housing > Housing policy
Keywords
Social housing
 


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